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This topic contains 5 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  Wilson 8 months ago.

  • #6667

    Carey
    Participant

    I want to thank Joe Cornell from Spin-off Research for his recommendation on Yum China (YUMC). My only regret is that I did a smaller position than usual, due to the lack of experience with the source of information.

    A very nice outcome, thanks again.

    #6685

    I just heard something that I liked: “No one ever bet enough on the winning horse.”

    That was the same for me and YUMC!

    Thanks for the comment, Carey!

    #9776

    Wilson
    Participant

    YUMC was a missed opportunity for me. When I looked at it last year, it came up as fairly value. Reviewing my model today, I realized I was using the wrong beta. Duh! Otherwise, it would have shown 25% upside.

    Anyway, after updating the financials, I come up with a fair value of $46. It looks like the stock is already discounting the problems at Pizza Hut.

    My concern now is whether I want more exposure to China and the restaurant space since I already have a position in Starbucks.

    #9807

    Wilson
    Participant

    There is a report that Chinese buyout firm is in talks to buy the company.

    #9809

    Oh! I see the pop today. Up 10%, but still only in the mid-30s… Worth a look? Your valuation from a while back showed something in the mid-40s, right?!

    E

    #9810

    Wilson
    Participant

    I think it can get to the mid-40s assuming our trade war with China doesn't drag on. Some analysts are afraid the Chinese might boycott US brands as they have done in the past.

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