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Netflix is Uninvestable
May 18, 2018

A great advantage of having a robust framework to assess investments is that it is easy to figure out where the risk in a particular idea is. Our recent members-only research work on Netflix is a case in point. Our process homes i...

Office Hour Recap Videos: IBM Case Study
May 10, 2018

Last weekend, we held the second of two open Office Hour sessions regarding our recent Case Study series on IBM. For those who were unable to attend, we’re posting videos of the presentation here along with some light commentary...

Managing an Option Investment: IBM Case Study
May 4, 2018

This is the final article in a case study series related to our valuation of and investment in IBM. You can find the earlier articles in the series through these links: Intro, Options, Valuation, Scientific Investing. This article...

Applying the Scientific Method to Investing: IBM Case Study
May 4, 2018

This is the fourth article in a case study series related to our valuation of and investment in IBM. You can find the earlier articles in the series through these links: Intro, Options, Valuation. The centerpiece of this article i...

Fact-Based Valuation: IBM Case Study
April 30, 2018

In our previous article in this Option Investing Case Study on IBM (article 1, article 2), we showed that we had invested in IBM by accepting downside price risk in return for a monetary premium. Even if you missed our Open Office...

Options Offer More Options: IBM Case Study
April 26, 2018

This is the second article in our Case Study series on IBM (read our first article). It explains the economics of our option investment in IBM and answers the following three (good) questions: How did you select your strike price?...

Entering and Managing an Option Investment: IBM Case Study
April 25, 2018

On April 11, I published a Tear Sheet (see below) to Framework members detailing an option investment in the bellwether of “Old Tech” – IBM. The company was scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter of 2018 in a wee...

A Professional’s Watch List
April 20, 2018

Last month Framework initiated a discussion on investing in a fully valued market prompted by a question from one of our members, Carey C. In our summary of that conversation, we promised a watchlist from Framework member and prof...

The Trump Market: Our Best-Case Scenario…So Far
April 17, 2018

In late November, 2016, shocked and concerned by Donald Trump’s dark horse Presidential victory, we published a research report to Framework members entitled “Investment Implications of a Trump Presidency”. Five hundred days...

Facebook (FB) Under Attack and Under Valued
April 11, 2018

The other day on our Framework Forums, a member wondered if Facebook had fallen far enough to be an attractive investment. With Zuck in front of Congress today, I decided to look at what would have to happen to Facebook’s busine...

Portfolio Thinking for a Fully Valued Market
March 21, 2018

Over the last month we have seen the sometimes dramatic return of price volatility to US stock markets. Interestingly, volatility impacts in other asset markets have been more muted. This speaks to a growing set of multivariate ef...

Superforecasters See Parallels Between Brexit and ‘America First’
March 20, 2018

Readers in the United States may be too overwhelmed by news stories regarding porn stars, presidents, and prosecutors to recall that there is another high-stakes international drama playing out just on the other side of the pond ...

Making Better Investment Decisions – A Professional’s Journey
March 10, 2018

The Valuation Process – The Core of the Investment Process I’ve spent about forty years learning about investing.  It’s been a labor of love.  Today, it’s my practice. I manage a ~$150M+ hybrid portfolio of public and pr...

Cigna-Express Scripts Merger QuickTake: The Beginning of the End
March 9, 2018

Yesterday morning, Cigna CI announced that it will acquire the equity of Prescription Benefits Manager (PBM) Express Scripts ESRX for $52 billion – $54 billion in a combined cash and stock deal and will retire Express Script...

Tesla is ‘Structurally Bankrupt’ But so are GM and Ford
February 22, 2018

Even people who love their Tesla cars, are planning to get Tesla solar roof panels, and who are saving up for a ride on Space-X must admit one thing: Tesla burns through a prodigious amount of cash. One commentator has gone so far...

What We Know about Market Crashes
February 9, 2018

Time heals all wounds, but the wounds of the recent market drop as evidenced by elevated option premia are still fresh. The so-called “Fear Index,” the VIX, traded down to 28 at yesterday’s close, compared to the sub-10 it w...

GE’s Insurance and Earnings Announcement
January 25, 2018

I have done a lot of writing about General Electric over the last few years, and the company's rapid decline and fall have caught me by surprise. This surprise is prompting me to return to first principles regarding my analysis an...

Reader Mailbag: Institutional Investor Question on Discount Rate
January 12, 2018

In September of last year, I published an article to Framework Members entitled Discard CAPM – There Is a Better Way to Think About Cost of Equity. To make a long story short, my contention in this whitepaper is that the standar...

The First Step To Better Investing Is Admitting There Is A Problem
January 12, 2018

Investing’s role in the social fabric of our western world has changed. It has become a life skill. Twenty years ago, the demands of “personal finance” stopped at knowing how to balance your checkbook and create and then sti...

FWI Reading List for the Week of December 18, 2017
December 22, 2017

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the stories we found interesting in our news feed this week had to do with the GOP tax bill, signed into law today. This law guarantees, at the very least, to really mess up quite a few accountants' holida...

FWI Reading List for the Week of December 11, 2017
December 15, 2017

No perp walks for Cabinet officials this week, but there was one story (not linked here…) about a former reality show contestant attempting to storm the private residence of the White House in a fit of pique. Now that's comp...

The Mouse Gobbles the Fox: Disney’s Big Gamble
December 14, 2017

When we did our original valuation of Disney in late-October / early-November of this year and published it to our members, one of the valuation drivers we struggled with was “Investment Level.” Our valuation framework...

FWI Reading List for the Week of December 4, 2017
December 9, 2017

Is it odd that any week that doesn't contain a high-ranking Administration official being charged with a felony or with an ultra-powerful member of the glitterati being accused of sexual impropriety seems like a slow news week? Th...

Five-Minute Valuation of Disney (DIS)
December 6, 2017

You can discuss Disney with other members on the Framework Forum. Transcript Last month, we published a valuation of Disney at the request of one of our members. Since then, the company has released its fiscal year 2017 statement,...

FWI Reading List for the Week of November 27, 2017
December 2, 2017

Unbelievable is all we could say as the week drew to a close. The impact of the headline news was too big to walk away from so much of our review this week looks at things on the front pages. Bitcoin. Flynn. North Korea. But, we'v...

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