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Framework Investing's commentary separates the
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Howard Marks on Business Cycles and the Option Value of Cash
September 14, 2018

As I mentioned in my last article, I recently had the pleasure of attending MOI Global’s Latticework 2018 Conference, at which legendary investor Howard Marks was one of the featured speakers. Marks is co-chairman and co-founder...

Finally an Intelligent Approach to Black Swan Investing
September 7, 2018

Listening to investing practitioners and pundits talk, the lay person might get the impression that investing is a rational application of microeconomics and mathematical principles. This impression is false. The truth is that inv...

Conference Souvenirs: Five Interesting Small Cap Ideas
August 30, 2018

Yesterday, I spent the day at the Midwest IDEAS Conference sponsored by Three Part Advisors, and held at the Gwen Hotel in the City of Big Shoulders, Chicago, Illinois. Three Part holds three conferences dedicated to uncovering th...

Don’t Be an Investing Patsy
August 28, 2018

Poker players must have smiled when the great investor, Warren Buffett, quoted one of their aphorisms in a 1987 investor letter. “If you are sitting at a poker table for 30 minutes and can’t figure out who the patsy is, the pa...

Oracle: The Leopard is Finally Changing Its Spots
August 6, 2018

I have had good reasons to own Oracle and to recommend Framework Investing members to buy it over the past few years. The company has a very strong franchise in databases, database applications, and servers that run databases, and...

Option Expiration: IBM Case Study
July 20, 2018

The option investment we originally published to our Framework Investing members on April 11 of this year and detailed in a series of case study articles is expiring today! When we originally invested in IBM’s downside potential...

Two Crucial Questions for GE Investors
July 6, 2018

Framework Investing subscribers know that I have plenty of egg on my face from my statements about GE: I did not think the firm would need to cut its dividend. It did. I did not think that the conditions in the Power business (who...

Option Assignment: IBM Case Study
July 2, 2018

In late April, we began a case study series investigating how one might use options to express a bullish investment opinion in IBM. This case study was based on a Tear Sheet I had published to Framework Investing subscribers earli...

Why Twitter is a Cash-Burning Machine
June 12, 2018

I was surprised to hear two stock analysts discussing micro-blogging sensation, Twitter, saying how strong of a free cash flow generator the company is. Knowing the struggles the company has had trying to monetize its website, the...

Good Things are in Store for STORE Capital (STOR)
June 6, 2018

In a recent Framework Investing Office Hour session, I spoke with one of Framework's members — hedge fund alum and New York City-based institutional investor, Robert Ruggirello, CFA — about a triple-net lease Real Esta...

Is Netflix Uninvestable? Two Insiders Weigh In
May 22, 2018

In our Framework Investing Office Hour sessions last week, we had several good discussions – one on autonomous vehicles, the other about our recent research and articles on Netflix. One long-time Framework member who dialed into...

Netflix is Uninvestable
May 18, 2018

A great advantage of having a robust framework to assess investments is that it is easy to figure out where the risk in a particular idea is. Our recent members-only research work on Netflix is a case in point. Our process homes i...

Office Hour Recap Videos: IBM Case Study
May 10, 2018

Last weekend, we held the second of two open Office Hour sessions regarding our recent Case Study series on IBM. For those who were unable to attend, we’re posting videos of the presentation here along with some light commentary...

Managing an Option Investment: IBM Case Study
May 4, 2018

This is the final article in a case study series related to our valuation of and investment in IBM. You can find the earlier articles in the series through these links: Intro, Options, Valuation, Scientific Investing. This article...

Applying the Scientific Method to Investing: IBM Case Study
May 4, 2018

This is the fourth article in a case study series related to our valuation of and investment in IBM. You can find the earlier articles in the series through these links: Intro, Options, Valuation. The centerpiece of this article i...

Fact-Based Valuation: IBM Case Study
April 30, 2018

In our previous article in this Option Investing Case Study on IBM (article 1, article 2), we showed that we had invested in IBM by accepting downside price risk in return for a monetary premium. Even if you missed our Open Office...

Options Offer More Options: IBM Case Study
April 26, 2018

This is the second article in our Case Study series on IBM (read our first article). It explains the economics of our option investment in IBM and answers the following three (good) questions: How did you select your strike price?...

Entering and Managing an Option Investment: IBM Case Study
April 25, 2018

On April 11, I published a Tear Sheet (see below) to Framework members detailing an option investment in the bellwether of “Old Tech” – IBM. The company was scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter of 2018 in a wee...

A Professional’s Watch List
April 20, 2018

Last month Framework initiated a discussion on investing in a fully valued market prompted by a question from one of our members, Carey C. In our summary of that conversation, we promised a watchlist from Framework member and prof...

The Trump Market: Our Best-Case Scenario…So Far
April 17, 2018

In late November, 2016, shocked and concerned by Donald Trump’s dark horse Presidential victory, we published a research report to Framework members entitled “Investment Implications of a Trump Presidency”. Five hundred days...

Facebook (FB) Under Attack and Under Valued
April 11, 2018

The other day on our Framework Forums, a member wondered if Facebook had fallen far enough to be an attractive investment. With Zuck in front of Congress today, I decided to look at what would have to happen to Facebook’s busine...

Portfolio Thinking for a Fully Valued Market
March 21, 2018

Over the last month we have seen the sometimes dramatic return of price volatility to US stock markets. Interestingly, volatility impacts in other asset markets have been more muted. This speaks to a growing set of multivariate ef...

Superforecasters See Parallels Between Brexit and ‘America First’
March 20, 2018

Readers in the United States may be too overwhelmed by news stories regarding porn stars, presidents, and prosecutors to recall that there is another high-stakes international drama playing out just on the other side of the pond ...

Making Better Investment Decisions – A Professional’s Journey
March 10, 2018

The Valuation Process – The Core of the Investment Process I’ve spent about forty years learning about investing.  It’s been a labor of love.  Today, it’s my practice. I manage a ~$150M+ hybrid portfolio of public and pr...

Cigna-Express Scripts Merger QuickTake: The Beginning of the End
March 9, 2018

Yesterday morning, Cigna CI announced that it will acquire the equity of Prescription Benefits Manager (PBM) Express Scripts ESRX for $52 billion – $54 billion in a combined cash and stock deal and will retire Express Script...

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