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FWI Reading List for the Week of July 10, 2017
July 14, 2017

Still watching the clock tick by as I wait for what I'll eventually call “The Great Trump Econ...

Mailbag: How Many Positions Should I Hold?
July 13, 2017

A financial journalist, Sandy F., saw a few of my Forbes articles and started corresponding. She rea...

FWI Reading List for the Week of July 3, 2017
July 7, 2017

On Monday, I noticed that Union Pacific's UNP stock price had hit $110 per share. Ah, great time to ...

Buyer Beware: ‘Salad Bar’ Investing can Harm Your Health
July 6, 2017

“Why do you hold [Insert FAANG or other popular stock name here] in your portfolio?” When I ask ...

Sensible Portfolio Design that Works WITH the Market
June 30, 2017

“The secret of making money is to avoid risks; you have to take risks when you spend it.” – Wa...

FWI Reading List for the Week of June 26, 2017
June 30, 2017

It seems inconceivable that 2017 is already half over, but my calendar and the humid Chicago weather...

Five-Minute Valuation of IBM ($IBM)
June 29, 2017

  IBM is a business in the midst of a huge transition. It has undergone big transitions several...

FWI Reading List for the Week of June 19, 2017
June 23, 2017

The summer solstice came and went with record high temperatures in the desert southwest, but blissfu...

The Only Two Investing Arguments: Case Studies of Kroger ($KR) and Amazon ($AMZN)
June 21, 2017

There are only two arguments in support of any investment position: Business conditions are exceptio...

Five-Minute Valuation of Kroger ($KR)
June 20, 2017

  When Kroger took a shellacking after guiding current year earnings lower, it caught my attent...

FWI Reading List for the Week of June 12, 2017
June 16, 2017

My week was bookended by corporate news – General Electric on Monday and Amazon-Whole Foods- K...

Kroger ($KR) Swings and Misses
June 16, 2017

When I checked prices this morning, I was surprised to see Kroger's KR stock price had taken an enor...

Was Immelt a Better CEO for $GE than Welch?
June 12, 2017

The first news story in my inbox this morning was that General Electric’s CEO, Jeff Immelt, was st...

FWI Reading List for the Week of June 5, 2017
June 9, 2017

Every day, I wake up expecting that things can't get any stranger; every evening, I'm surprised to f...

VIDEO: Finding the Optimum Option to Sell for a Covered Call on QUALCOMM ($QCOM)
June 2, 2017

One of the stocks that was on the Covered Call Corner list we published yesterday was Qualcomm QCOM....

FWI Reading List for the Week of May 30, 2017
June 2, 2017

There's a good reason why adventure movies feature imminent threats to the hero and his love interes...

FWI Reading List for the Week of May 22, 2017
May 26, 2017

It's worth noting that MRI scans have shown that the male brain does not fully mature until age 25...

FWI Reading List for the Week of May 15, 2017
May 19, 2017

Another full week of corporate earnings (mostly benign) and political chaos (potentially problematic...

VIDEO: Our Analysis of GE’s ($GE) Recent Downgrade
May 19, 2017

Several days ago, the analyst covering General Electric for Deutsche Bank downgraded his rating on t...

VIDEO: The Railroad Pricing Environment is Changing
May 13, 2017

The railroad pricing environment is changing. Over the last decade and a half, railroads have been a...

FWI Reading List for the Week of May 8, 2017
May 12, 2017

It was a busy week for politics and earnings both. We were happy to see that French voters heeded ou...

FWI Reading List for the Week of May 1, 2017
May 5, 2017

Yay! We can all count on a future of cheap, high-quality healthcare!* In honor of the AHCA bill's p...

Reader Mailbag: The Shifting PBM Industry ($ESRX)
May 5, 2017

Some of Framework's public posts are syndicated through SeekingAlpha, a popular investing researc...

Reader Mailbag: Superforecaster Question about Option Pricing
May 5, 2017

Framework's latest project with the Superforecasters is related to an airline ETF and a major cred...

Why Stock Returns Under Trump Might Disappoint Investors
May 5, 2017

The stock market climbed after the US presidential election, and the big market indices set successi...

Avoiding the Express Scripts Falling Knife: Framework Investing Case Study
April 26, 2017

In a recent article, I wrote at length about the importance of what Warren Buffett calls “…a sou...

FWI Reading List for the Week of April 17, 2017
April 21, 2017

In a fortunate twist for investors everywhere, the world did not end in nuclear conflagration this w...

Charting Out Union Pacific’s ($UNP) Boost in Cash-Based Profitability
April 21, 2017

Union Pacific has drastically improved its efficiency in converting revenues to profits over the pas...

Busting the Myth of April Tax Selling
April 15, 2017

In my Twitter feed the other day, I saw a post from Josh Brown, the well-known investment personalit...

FWI Reading List for the Week of April 10, 2017
April 14, 2017

This holiday-shortened week was packed with geopolitical news, but other than felonious assault on a...

Where are Union Pacific’s ($UNP) Profits Going? The Answer may Surprise You
April 12, 2017

After posting my last article on Union Pacific, in which I characterized the firm as a monopolist, I...

FWI Reading List for Week of 3 April 2017
April 7, 2017

What a busy week in politics! A conservative British politician suggested that if the Spanish contin...

Massive Backdoor Compensation at CVS Health ($CVS)
April 1, 2017

A SeekingAlpha reader, Bob, sent me a note regarding a video I had done some time ago called Three W...

Three Examples of an Investing Framework in Action
March 31, 2017

Over the last couple weeks, we have written three investor education articles on the value of invest...

IOI Reading List for Week of 27 March 2017
March 31, 2017

The big news this week – historical, in fact – is that Britain submitted its letter stat...

Why stock returns under Trump might disappoint investors
March 29, 2017

The stock market climbed after the US presidential election, and the big market indices set successi...

Here is What We Liked in Oracle’s ($ORCL) 3Q17 Earnings Release
March 27, 2017

Oracle reported third quarter results for fiscal year 2017 on March 16th and the share price jumped ...

VIDEO: Union Pacific’s Monopoly Profits
March 26, 2017

Transcript Hi everyone and welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee with Erik. Today, I'm looking at an arti...

The Elements of an Effective Real-World Investing Framework
March 24, 2017

“To invest successfully, one doesn’t need a stratospheric IQ. What’s needed is a sound int...

DataBite: The Effect of Dividend Reinvestment on the Long-Run Real S&P 500 Price
March 24, 2017

We have been working with one of our hedge fund clients to apply the IOI model to the valuation of R...

IOI Reading List for Week of 20 March 2017
March 24, 2017

In addition to reading through hundreds of pages about railroad pricing and learning something abou...

What Does a Monopolist Look Like? It Looks Like Union Pacific
March 24, 2017

At the end of last month, I published an investment idea to the members of our service regarding Uni...

The Three Characteristics of a Good Investing Framework
March 17, 2017

“To invest successfully, one doesn’t need a stratospheric IQ. What’s needed is a sound intelle...

Lazard Investments – Investing Frameworks: De-biased Decision Making in Equity Investing
March 17, 2017

As we continue with with our focus on the value of investing frameworks, we have been studying ex...

Trump’s Anti-Business Presidency
March 15, 2017

A week after Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States, we published an in-de...

VIDEO: Using SEC’s EDGAR Database to Understand Nike ($NKE)
March 13, 2017

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee with Erik. It is, by my estimation, the worst Sund...

From Complexity to Insight: The Benefits of a Framework in Investing
March 10, 2017

   “To invest successfully, one doesn’t need a stratospheric IQ. What’s needed is a soun...

IOI Reading List for Week of 6 March 2017
March 10, 2017

Sell! Buy! Markets hate complex headlines (Chicago Booth Review). An academic at University of Chica...

Three Things You Should Know About Union Pacific ($UNP)
March 9, 2017

Much of Union Pacific’s business stands to be hurt by the announced policies of the Trump administ...

How Should I Analyze P/E Ratios?
March 8, 2017

In my Quora feed the other day, someone asked about how one may best use P/E ratios. I took time to...

What is the Best Way to Understand the Black–Scholes model?
March 6, 2017

Scrolling through my Quora feed the other day, I found someone asking for an explanation of the Blac...

Getting Better Through Community: IOI’s Growing Partnerships
March 3, 2017

In this special issue of Signal, we are excited to take the wraps off three “partnershipsR...

IOI and The Brier Fund, LLP
March 3, 2017

Forecasting is a skill that is valued the world over. From being able to accurately forecast case by...

Risky Business: Liquidity Risk vs. Solvency Risk
March 2, 2017

As a follow-on to our recent Sunday Morning Coffee with Erik video contrasting market risk with valu...

Visual Option Primer for Directional Investors
March 1, 2017

Executive Summary Options are directional instruments that allow investors to gain and accept exposu...

VIDEO: Market Risk vs Valuation Risk
February 22, 2017

Transcript Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee with Erik! This is a special Sunday Morning Coffee sessi...

Do ‘Realistic’ Growth Assumptions Help?
February 21, 2017

An institutional consulting client had asked me for my thoughts on reasonable modeling growth rates....

Farnam Street Interview: Five Good Questions for Erik
February 17, 2017

It was my great pleasure to be asked by Jake Taylor at Farnam Street Investors to come on his weekl...

IOI Investing Explainer: “Short” Investments
February 17, 2017

Recently, we have featured some option selling ideas and also some bearish investment structures in ...

Gilead ($GILD) Case Study: The Dangers of Relying on Investing Anecdotes
February 10, 2017

A few weeks ago, we published an article that characterized Gilead as a “Value Trap.” That artic...

How Profitable is Under Armour’s ($UA / $UAA) International Segment?
February 6, 2017

A reader has been following IOI Members' recent work on Under Armour (UA / UAA) and asked a good que...

VIDEO: Union Pacific’s ($UNP) Amazing Profits
February 5, 2017

Transcript As I was taking a look through my Twitter feed this morning, I found this tweet from a gu...

Is Under Armour ($UA / $UAA) Still a Quality Company?
February 3, 2017

In our IOI Office Hour session last night, we were talking with our members about Under Armour (UA ...

IOI Investing Explainer: “Write-Downs”
February 3, 2017

In our IOI Office Hour session last night, we were talking with our members about Under Armour (UA ...

VIDEO: The Two Branches of Value Investing
January 31, 2017

Transcript Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee with Erik. Today, I want to talk about value investing. ...

“Insightfilled” – GMO’s Quarterly Letter
January 27, 2017

Jeremy Grantham is somewhat of a legend in value circles. He is the rarest of investors – one ...

Under Armour ($UA, $UAA) Share Class Arbitrage?
January 27, 2017

A hedge fund manager who uses IOI Training Courses for its incoming analysts asked me if I could ...

Mailbag: Spooked About Allergan ($AGN)
January 26, 2017

Pharma companies have been in the news a lot lately, and while people say there is no such thing as ...

Gilead Sciences ($GILD) – Portrait of a Value Trap
January 25, 2017

It doesn’t matter what the PE Ratio is – Gilead is not necessarily undervalued at present prices...

Interview: Monish Prabai on Value
January 20, 2017

Mohnish Prabai is a legend in the halls of value investing, but not that many people really know him...

Garmin ($GRMN) Investment Generates Great Gains
January 20, 2017

On October 27, 2016, we published an IOI Tear Sheet recommending a bearish investment in Garmin (GRM...

The Three Great Investing Fantasies
January 20, 2017

While only about a third of my recently published book, The Intelligent Option Investor, is dedicat...

Three Things You Should Know About Caterpillar ($CAT)
January 17, 2017

Famous short-seller Jim Chanos is only half-right about Caterpillar. In 2013, Chanos announced that ...

VIDEO: Tracking Investment Effects of the Trump Transition
January 15, 2017

The following is an excerpt from the report mentioned in the video. Please consider taking a complem...

Computers We Aren’t
January 13, 2017

The function of human intelligence has been considered over and over again throughout history. In fa...

Three Ways to Become a Better Investor in 2017
January 13, 2017

A new year, a new you! Many of our new training course clients came to us over the past few weeks wi...

Mailbag: Using Option Pricing to Predict the Future
January 10, 2017

One of the most wonderful things about understanding option pricing is that you can quickly understa...

VIDEO: Six-Minute Analysis of Caterpillar’s ($CAT) Profits
January 10, 2017

This weekend, I spent some time taking a look at Caterpillar, and frankly what I found surprised me....

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio on Trump
January 6, 2017

In December we penned an article and wrote a members-only white paper on the investing implications...

Where Will Valeant’s ($VRX) Stock be in Three Years?
January 6, 2017

A few weeks ago, we wrote an article showing what the option market was saying the probability was f...

Focused Investing for the Long-Term
January 6, 2017

Preparing a Covered Call Corner spreadsheet for IOI members this week, I discovered a fund company b...

Beta Version of “Signal Digest”
December 30, 2016

We have been toying with the idea of a monthly digest form of our Signal email, done in the form of ...

What Option Prices Say About the Future of Valeant ($VRX)?
December 16, 2016

Valuation at IOI starts by looking hard at a company's financial model, but is augmented by looking ...

IOI Reading List for Week of 12 December 2016
December 16, 2016

Can the US Become an Energy Superpower in 2017 (Bloomberg). Article discusses the logistical and mar...

Three Things an Investor Should Know about Zimmer Biomet ($ZBH)
December 10, 2016

Medical devices seem like a great business, but Zimmer management has done a poor job of creating va...

FT: Active Investors Should Love the Rise of ETF’s
December 9, 2016

We have spilt much ink here over the last 6 months talking about the rise of ETF's and the passive i...

Donald Trump’s ‘Investment’ Strategy Doomed to Failure?
December 7, 2016

Executive Overview The President-elect's trade strategy, focused on bringing back manufacturing jobs...

Mailbag: Dealing with Report Bias
December 4, 2016

An IOI member sent in a great question about the possible sources of bias that can affect an analys...

Demographics is Destiny – Why Economic Growth is Tepid
December 2, 2016

President-elect Trump is right: the economic recovery post-Crisis has been tepid. An academic paper ...

Video: Dalio’s How the Economic Machine Works
December 2, 2016

The report we recently published to IOI members analyzing the investing implications of the incomin...

Buying the Trump Rally? Be Careful!
December 1, 2016

Those who have followed my research for a while, know that I am usually dismissive about macroeconom...

What’s Valeant ($VRX) Worth? IOI’s Quick Take on Damodaran’s Valuation
November 27, 2016

A long-time reader of my work at Morningstar and IOI, Wilson M., wrote in over the Thanksgiving holi...

Great Investors are Mindful Investors
November 18, 2016

Stress and money seem to run hand in hand in circles together around us, much like my 2 year old, ar...

Another Successful Whole Foods Markets ($WFM) Investment
November 18, 2016

We have been writing about and have held bearish investments in Whole Foods Market (WFM) for nearly ...

Five Busted Investing Myths
November 18, 2016

Five Busted Myths About Investing “There is a mismatch in the complexity of financial decisions we...

Hidden Risk – ETFs and Passive Investing
November 11, 2016

Passive investing and the use of index and other ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) to enable it is curren...

For Investors Probability Matters
November 11, 2016

We have been doing a ton of thinking around here on portfolio theory and optimization in an IOI cont...

Video: Active versus Passive Investing
November 11, 2016

During the IOI Office Hours held last night, a tight group of IOI-ers discussed investing in the Tru...

The Vampire Squid Versus the Sun: First Solar ‘Valuation’
November 3, 2016

In mid-October, Goldman Sachs – nicknamed “The Vampire Squid” by journalist Matt Taibbi – is...

Three Things an Investor Should Know about Garmin ($GRMN)
October 31, 2016

Headwinds still exist, but Garmin’s top-line is starting to grow again. The shift of consumers awa...

Measuring Investment Efficacy
October 28, 2016

Measuring the success of a company's investment program is both vitally important and very difficult...

Lowering the Cost of Hedging
October 26, 2016

One of the biggest problems with hedging is the high cost of option protection – a fact that w...

What companies do with their profits matters…a lot
October 21, 2016

Question: How does a company lose half its market value…quickly? Answer: It takes one and a half y...

The FWI Ownership Analysis Framework (Video)
October 21, 2016

This video is about investing, but a lot of people muddle the word “investing,” so I prefer to t...

Multiples Analysis: Dangerous CAPE Ahead!
October 14, 2016

As an IOI reader, you must know that we have no love lost for multiples-based analyses. We believe ...

DataBite: Garmin’s ($GRMN) Hidden Revenue Growth
October 13, 2016

This month, IOI is working on a valuation of and possible investment structure for GPS device innov...

The Vampire Squid versus the Sun: Structural Factors and Behavioral Biases
October 11, 2016

Last Friday, Goldman Sachs – nicknamed “The Vampire Squid” by journalist Matt Taibbi – issue...

Infographic: The Investing-Industrial Complex
October 11, 2016

Most investors don't realize how much the structure of the investing businesses influences the recom...

Conviction Ratings and the Insanity of “Hold”
October 7, 2016

In our recent Guided Tear Sheet web conference to discuss the valuation drivers of Gilead Sciences (...

It Isn’t Just Us, Even Your Advisor Wants a Smarter Investor (Client)
October 7, 2016

Investors perceive advisors as often wanting to keep them in the dark. This article from Financial A...

The Present Value Proof is in the Workbook
October 7, 2016

After our Busting the Myth of Discount Rates article was published, it was picked up by the editors ...

Busting the Myth of Discount Rates
October 5, 2016

The foundation of modern finance is the idea – called the time value of money – that a d...

In Investing, Siz(ing) Matters
September 30, 2016

Gen. Robert H. Barrow, Commandant of the Marine Corps, noted in 1980 that… Amateurs talk about...

Can I Make a Living Trading Stocks?
September 30, 2016

This morning, someone requested me to answer this question on Quora. Reading the question over, the ...

DataBite: Making Sense out of Gilead’s ($GILD) Revenue Stream
September 29, 2016

Wall Street mainly focuses on earnings. I believe that the best directional investors in the world f...

Three Things You Should Know About Gilead ($GILD)
September 27, 2016

It doesn’t matter what the PE Ratio is – Gilead is not necessarily undervalued at present prices...

Investors, Beware the Acquisition
September 23, 2016

“…Among Russell 3ooo firms with acquisitions greater than 5% of acquirer enterprise valu...

New IOI Tear Sheet Published on Gilead Sciences ($GILD)
September 22, 2016

We just published a new IOI Tear Sheet to our Members and will very shortly be publishing a more det...

Don’t Panic! IOI Review of Oracle ($ORCL) Annual Results
September 20, 2016

In our last article, we reviewed Oracle's 1Q 2017 financial results and checked in on our forecasts ...

Forecasting Oracle ($ORCL)
September 20, 2016

With the 5% fall in Oracle's (ORCL) share price after reporting first quarter 2017 results, we took...

IOI September 2016 Schedule
September 16, 2016

Welcome to the back half of 2016! On the Wall St calendar September is when it really begins. This ...

Omaha! The Benefits of A Long(er) Investment Horizon
September 16, 2016

Having a long(er) investment horizon than “the Street” has been proven to be one of the ...

Can You Recognize the Effects of Structural Market Changes?
September 16, 2016

From an IOI Investing Alumnus When I first started with IOI's coursework one of the things I could n...

The Process of Valuation: Gilead Sciences ($GILD)
September 16, 2016

Warren Buffett once said that… An investor’s success is in direct proportion to the degree to wh...

An Investment by Any Other Name
September 9, 2016

Most people – professional analysts included – make a lot of mistakes when they try to v...

Cash, Credit and Swimming Naked
September 9, 2016

David Merkel over at The Alephblog is a wonderful resource on investment knowledge thanks to his sha...

What RISKS are Lurking in Your ETF Investments?
September 9, 2016

Most of us are holders of both Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and single name company stocks. I am pre...

Apple’s Best Worst Product Launch Ever
September 9, 2016

iPhone 7 – what a bore! Water resistant? Yawn. No headphone jack? What a hassle. More storage sp...

Are you a closet “market timer”?
September 2, 2016

I am an IOI Alumnus. I consider myself an intelligent, disciplined investor. I've been educated by ...

Simple Rules for Finding Small Cap Investment Opportunities
September 2, 2016

Team IOI spent the last two days at the Midwest IDEAS Conference – an investment symposium shining...

Bond Replacement Update – June’s Selections Continue to Shine
September 1, 2016

Each month, we publish a list of “bond replacement” candidates to our subscribers. Our June sele...

A Checklist for the Household Investment Manager (psssst…that’s YOU!)
August 26, 2016

“Nobody out there cared about the success or failure of my investments as much as I did.”...

The Future is Not What You Think It Will Be
August 25, 2016

It’s a scientifically proven fact: we are terrible at forecasting the future. Our tendency is to a...

Three Things You Should Know About Express Scripts
August 23, 2016

We just published a new IOI ChartBook on pharmacy benefits manager giant Express Scripts (ESRX) to o...

The Verdict is in: Whole Foods is Overvalued
August 12, 2016

“Organic foods is in a secular upswing.” “Whole Foods' new 365 markets are going t...

The Byzantine Business of PBMs is Shifting
August 10, 2016

We just published a new Tear Sheet and valuation for Pharmacy Benefits Management PBM giant Expres...

Want to be a Great Investor? Here’s How
August 8, 2016

Credit Suisse's strategist Michael Mauboussin, just published a research report entitled Thirty Year...

IOI’s August 2016 Schedule
August 5, 2016

The dog days of summer are upon us! This note outlines what to expect from IOI this month and when t...

IOI Recommendation Performance 1H16
August 5, 2016

After a rocky start to the year, equity markets are up a few percentage points for the year. We don...

Convergex “Sell Everything”…But Why?
August 4, 2016

Every evening, I get a mail from Nick Colas, Chief Strategist at Convergex and Jessica Rabe, his ass...

DataBite: Checking in on Our Oil Price Scenarios
August 4, 2016

Back in March, we published a speculative recommendation on National Oilwell Varco ($NOV) as well as...

Prepare for a World of Sexy Grocery
August 3, 2016

When readers asked us to take a look at valuations for grocery retailers like Whole Foods Markets ($...

What would happen to the economy if the stock market was opened once a week?
July 31, 2016

Someone asked me this question on Quora, and I thought it was interesting and thought-provoking. Hop...

DataBite: NetSuite’s Profits
July 29, 2016

This morning, Oracle (ORCL) announced that it had finalized an agreement to buy Cloud-based Enterpri...

Bond Replacement Investments a Smashing Success in July
July 28, 2016

Each month, we publish a list of “bond replacement” candidates to our subscribers. July ...

What is the Option Market Saying about Twitter (TWTR)?
July 27, 2016

The Twitter-verse is abuzz with Twitter's big earnings miss last night and its precipitous fall toda...

Three Things You Should Know About Kroger (KR)
July 26, 2016

We just published a new IOI ChartBook on Kroger  as a comparison to the one we did on Whole Foods M...

IOI DataBite: Kroger’s Long-Run Profitability
July 23, 2016

I spent a lot of time trying to understand profitability dynamics at Kroger when I was preparing our...

New IOI Tear Sheet Published on Kroger (KR)
July 22, 2016

Every generalist investor thinks they can invest in retail. Compared to other industries, where you ...

Busting the Myth of Stock Compensation
July 21, 2016

If you were running a small business with a partner and your partner did to you what management team...

IOI DataBite: Relative Valuation for Large Cap Consumer Staples
July 18, 2016

Drawing from the data we used for our DataBite on Coca-Cola, we created a heat map of relative valua...

IOI DataBite: Coca-Cola’s (KO) Dividends in Danger?
July 18, 2016

In this yield-starved world, people may be paying too much for generous dividend payers – so m...

Are you investing in grocery? You should be!
July 15, 2016

“No one makes money in grocery” is a pretty common investor rule-of-thumb.  Margins are razor t...

Breaking the Pound, Shorting, and the Thought Process of a Zillionaire
July 15, 2016

Ever wonder how hedge fund strategies are implemented? Interested in the thought process of one of t...

Three Things You Should Know about Whole Foods Markets
July 15, 2016

We just published a new IOI ChartBook on Whole Foods Markets (WFM) and the points below were the thr...

New IOI Tear Sheet Published on Whole Foods Markets (WFM)
July 8, 2016

Not much has changed on an operational level since December 2015 when we published a Tear Sheet with...

Breaking News: Automakers’ Revenues to be Cut in Half
July 7, 2016

Most people rely on expert opinion to make investment decisions. But the essence of being a good inv...

Twenty-nine Eiffel Towers
July 6, 2016

One of the key risks to Union Pacific (UNP) identified in our recent research report  was the rero...

Brexit Hedging Follow-Up
July 1, 2016

Last week, we published a brief article on steps we took to hedge portfolio risk in advance of the B...

Video: Bond Replacement Investment Overview
June 30, 2016

Bond replacement investments – selling covered calls and cash-secured puts – represent a popular...

Even Monkeys Fall from Trees
June 28, 2016

One of the most distinctive elements of intelligent option investing is the modest and prudent use o...

5 Things IOI Investors Must Consider On Brexit
June 24, 2016

There's been no shortage of commentary today on the impacts of the United Kingdom's vote to leave th...

Replay of Apple (AAPL) Conference Call
June 24, 2016

On the evening of June 23 – before it was officially announced that Britons had lost their min...

Brexit Hedging
June 24, 2016

Two days ago, I made a speculative purchase of puts on the SPY ETF in preparation for the Brexit vot...

Reducing Investing Biases
June 23, 2016

Many interested in IOI are scientists, engineers and mathematicians. We think this is because IOI v...

UNP Guided Tear Sheet Presentation Slides
June 22, 2016

Union Pacific is an interesting company with an interesting weakness. It and other railroads have be...

3 Steps You Can Take NOW to Make Time to Learn
June 17, 2016

Unapologetically, IOI sees itself as a leading light in investor education – an increasingly c...

Three Things You Should Know About P&G
June 17, 2016

After yesterday's market close, we published our newest in-depth research report on consumer product...

Oracle (ORCL) Leverage Adjustments
June 16, 2016

One of the great advantages that options confer upon an investor is the ability to tailor risk and r...

The Risks to P&G are to the Downside
June 15, 2016

Procter & Gamble’s (PG) stock has risen 22% since its September 2015 lows, in comparison to a ...

Video: Two-Minute Valuation of Union Pacific (UNP)
June 15, 2016

Valuing a company is not hard – there are very few things that can affect value in the long te...

New IOI Tear Sheet Published for Procter & Gamble (PG)
June 10, 2016

After market close today, we published a new IOI Tear Sheet  covering consumer products giant Proct...

“Nudging” Your Investing Process in the Right Direction
June 9, 2016

You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table. – Kenny Rogers (The Gambler) The...

Sidestepping the Agony of Defeat
June 6, 2016

Everybody has reactions. Especially when it comes to money. – Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barr...

Where Will Apple Invest its Cash?
June 3, 2016

With the smartphone market slowing, Apple (AAPL) managers must look to other areas in which to inves...

The Responsibility vs. Skill Gap Has Cost Investors $200Bn+!
June 3, 2016

Yes, you read that right, $200Bn.  That's over the last 20 years.  In this short article on Financ...

Apple: The Real Costs of Stock Comp
June 2, 2016

In the boom-boom days of the dot.com era, tech firms doled out compensation in the form of options. ...

Three Reasons Why Berkshire’s Tech Investments Aren’t Stupid
May 31, 2016

The harshest critics say that Berkshire Hathaway’s Tech sector investments – Apple and IBM – a...

Buy! Buy! Buy!…Sell! Sell! Sell! – Herding In Financial Markets
May 27, 2016

At IOI, one of our core investor education precepts is to be aware of human biases in financial deci...

New IOI ChartBook on Union Pacific (UNP)
May 26, 2016

This week, we published an IOI ChartBook on the largest publicly-traded rail freight company, Union ...

Update on Whole Foods Market (WFM) Investment
May 25, 2016

The bearish investment in Whole Foods Market (WFM) that we detailed in an IOI Tear Sheet  dated D...

Financial Advisors Eat Their Own Cooking – Unfortunately
May 19, 2016

In April, the Department of Labor expanded its definition of which investment professionals will be ...

Does the IOI Method Really Work?
May 18, 2016

One of the participants in our last IOI 100-Series course in San Francisco, D. Chen, sent through a ...

Haters Will Hate – Apple (AAPL) is Still Undervalued
May 18, 2016

“Schadenfreude” is a German word meaning “the pleasure derived from someone else's...

Three Things an Owner of Apple Should Know
May 17, 2016

The Tear Sheet we published on Apple  last week gives a summary of our Apple valuation and of an op...

Procter & Gamble – A Tide of Cash
May 13, 2016

We have been looking into PG as part of a valuation project for the Company which we will complete, ...

New Tear Sheet Published on Apple (AAPL)
May 11, 2016

The product category Apple (AAPL) pioneered in the mid-aughts, Internet-enabled portable time-wastin...

Avoiding Bad Decisions: Sageworks Presentation
May 11, 2016

How well do we manage the deluge of information we're confronted with on a daily basis? Does complex...

Snowball’s Author Interview: Structural Factors
May 10, 2016

In 2008, a Sell-Side insurance analyst named Alice Schroeder published the authorized biography of ...

Why ROIC is Stupid
May 10, 2016

As I was researching Union Pacific (see our UNP articles and reports in the IOI Dashboard), I was s...

Three Things an Owner of Union Pacific Should Know
May 6, 2016

We've been doing a lot of work on the valuation of Union Pacific (UNP) lately and have condensed dow...

Intelligent Investing – How to Value and Think About Growth (Video)
May 6, 2016

In this excerpt from my interview with Manual of Ideas' Shai Dardashti, I discuss the importance of ...

Of Time Bombs and HF Bombs
May 6, 2016

Before the 2008-2009 Mortgage Crisis and during the heady days for third party research in the era o...

Union Pacific: This Train Has Already Left the Station
May 4, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes.com] Professional investors love railroads. Warren Buffe...

IOI 100-Series Training Course Info Session
April 30, 2016

Two-thirds of all people with investable assets of over $50,000 are personally investing some or al...

The Misuse of Covered Calls
April 29, 2016

In this short video interview that Erik did with Manual of Ideas editor Shai Dardashti, Erik talks a...

New Tear Sheet on Union Pacific (UNP)
April 28, 2016

Some people collect coins; others collect stamps. I collect examples of companies that most people m...

In Defense of Simplicity
April 27, 2016

Erik was invited by SageWorks to conduct a webinar entitled Avoiding Bad Decisions in Business Valu...

Investment Overview – National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
April 27, 2016

We're starting to gear up with a new set of offerings, which include web conferences to discuss inve...

What Discount Rate Should I Use?
April 26, 2016

In this week's mailbag, I found a note from a former colleague working in the financial industry and...

IOI Guided Tear Sheet Webinar – National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
April 22, 2016

We're happy to announce the first in our “Guided Tear Sheet” webinar series! We will be ...

This is How Union Pacific (UNP) Rolls
April 22, 2016

Key Takeaways Union Pacific is one-half of a rail duopoly controlling the Western US. The other duop...

In Defense of Derivatives and Leverage
April 21, 2016

At the Framework Investing we are very concerned with the foundations of a good investment idea and ...

What is RISK? – Manual of Ideas Interview
April 20, 2016

In this brief cut from my interview with Shai Dardashti from The Manual of Ideas, I discuss the defi...

Was the 2008 Financial Crisis Caused by the Big Banks?
April 15, 2016

After being so mean to banks in my article earlier this week, today, I felt the need to defend them....

The Trouble with Banks
April 15, 2016

I don't trust banks and neither should you if you care at all about understanding the company in whi...

Don’t Sweat the Fed
April 14, 2016

Common wisdom holds that Federal Reserve interest rate policy changes have a large effect on equity...

Video Tour of the IOI Website
April 13, 2016

The new IOI website is designed to offer you opportunities to learn the ins and outs of intelligent ...

Manual of Ideas: Levering Like Buffett
April 13, 2016

Earlier this month, I was interviewed by Shai Dardashti, North American Managing Director for The M...

Wall St. Pay to Play
April 11, 2016

“Sell-side research departments serve only as a marketing arm of the Sales and Trading desks.&...

Luke, Embrace the Down Side!
April 8, 2016

One of the most critical behavioral elements that we teach in our IOI 101 course is to thoughtfully ...

Video Brief — Calculating FCFO
April 7, 2016

I got a message the other day from a reader of The Framework Investing about the calculations that w...

This Ain’t Your Father’s GE — Bravo!
April 7, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes.com] There has been a lot going on at and around General...

A Look at GE’s 2015 Brought Some Surprises
April 6, 2016

There has been a lot going on at and around General Electric (GE) lately. The firm announced it was ...

Better-Educated Investors Perform Better
April 1, 2016

“Just as it was not possible to live in an industrialized society without print literacy – the a...

Another Apple Failure: Forget About Hardware
March 31, 2016

I have written about Apple (AAPL) a few times in the past few years. The first IOI Tear Sheet, publi...

IOI Video Series: Option Pricing
March 31, 2016

People seem to think option pricing is difficult and opaque. In fact, it only takes about 7 minutes ...

IBM’s Profits are Booming–And We are Lowering Our Fair Value
March 29, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes] Normally, when you see an analyst lowering his or her &...

We’re Updating Our Fair Value Estimate for IBM
March 25, 2016

Last summer, we published a Tear Sheet suggesting a covered call “Bond Replacement” investment i...

Introduction to IOI’s New Website
March 25, 2016

IOI is changing — for the better! We have spent the last four months planning a new Internet h...

New IOI Tear Sheet on IBM (IBM)
March 25, 2016

Last July, we suggested that a “Bond Replacement” covered call investment in IBM looked...

Don’t Trust Stock Research
March 23, 2016

Investing is hard work. Little wonder that many principals (e.g., individuals, pension funds, and un...

Don’t Trust Stock Buybacks
March 23, 2016

For those of you who were not already disillusioned enough after reading my earlier post this week e...

Required Reading for Framework Investings
March 18, 2016

From my perspective, the people who have made the greatest advances in the world of financial econom...

Step-by-Step Valuation of National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
March 16, 2016

[This article originally appeared in Forbes] Analyzing companies like National Oilwell Varco (NOV), ...

Oracle’s 3Q16 Update
March 16, 2016

Database and enterprise software giant Oracle (ORCL) reported fiscal third quarter earnings after ma...

New Tear Sheet on National Oilwell Varco (NOV) Published
March 14, 2016

Companies whose operations rely on the price of commodities are tough to get a handle on. Revenues v...

Dividend Arbitrage Made Simple(r)
March 11, 2016

No strategy involving the term arbitrage is necessarily “simple.” The very concept of ar...

Measuring Option Leverage
March 11, 2016

This piece is the second in a three-part series on investment leverage (see the first article in the...

Buffett Wins a Bet
March 11, 2016

Warren Buffett is known for not only his phenomenal investing prowess, but for his willingness to pl...

What is an ETF?
March 10, 2016

“Do you know what you’re investing in?” – I ask this question of people all the time and wha...

Structural Factors: How Good are Hedge Fund Investments?
March 9, 2016

To many investors, the term “hedge fund” conjures up images of master-of-the-universe celebrity ...

Understanding Investment Leverage
March 4, 2016

This piece is the first in a three part series on investment leverage.   It is a longer learning a...

Trust But Verify
March 4, 2016

I am a contributor to the Capital Ideas Blog at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Busine...

Who Spends More: The Whole Foods or Walmart Shopper?
March 4, 2016

IOI has published several articles and in-depth research pieces on both Wal-Mart (WMT) and Whole Foo...

Are Covered Calls a Scam?
March 3, 2016

Brokers love their clients to sell covered calls, but it’s not always clear that covered calls are...

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) — Is this a Bottom?
March 3, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes.com] One glance at the chart below is enough to prove th...

“Bond Replacement” Made Easy
March 1, 2016

IOI is reprising a feature Erik developed while editor of the Morningstar OptionInvestor newsletter...

Reader Question on Ford and Banks
February 26, 2016

When we opened up our mailbag this week, we found a letter from Carey C., a long-time reader of Erik...

Onshore Rig Counts – Data Porn
February 26, 2016

Just after posting our research note on National Oilwell Varco, I took a look on Bloomberg and found...

Demand Environment for National Oilwell Varco
February 26, 2016

With oil prices bouncing around $30 / bbl., we've gotten interested in investments in the Energy sec...

Successful Investing Requires Constant Learning
February 26, 2016

It’s been a challenging few years for “Value Investors”.   By traditional definitions “val...

One Fact, Eight Myths about Covered Calls
February 26, 2016

For years, I have enjoyed reading academic papers by Cliff Asness and the team at AQR Capital. In th...

Step-by-Step Valuation of Ford Motors (F)
February 16, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes] The shares of Ford Motor Co. (F) have been hit hard sin...

Thinking Like a Spook
February 16, 2016

People often ask me for behavioral finance reading selections. The first book I always recommend is...

Reader Question on Ford Valuation
February 16, 2016

When we opened up our mailbag this week, we found a letter from Evan B., portfolio manager of a comp...

New Detailed Strategy Note for Ford Published
February 15, 2016

We dropped our fair value estimate range for Ford in an earlier report but still hold a small positi...

The “Fed Model” is Complete Bunk!
February 12, 2016

Clifford Asness’ 2003 paper on the Fed Model is one of the very best, most practical Capital Marke...

New Detailed Valuation Note for Ford Published
February 12, 2016

In our IOI training sessions, we talk about the importance of scientific method in investing. We mak...

New Tear Sheet Published on Ford (F)
February 12, 2016

A key feature of Intelligent Option Investing is assessing how your projections of key valuation dri...

The Different Flavors of Risk
February 5, 2016

One of the main points of discussion in the IOI 102 course — an Introduction to Behavioral Bia...

Reports of Shale’s Death are Greatly Exaggerated
February 5, 2016

When oil prices were hovering around 60 / bbl, I wasn't as interested, but now that it's fallen to h...

Don’t Be an Investing Hero
February 5, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes] My friend and business partner, Joe, manages money for ...

Becoming a Superforecaster
February 4, 2016

Within the past two weeks, two friends of mine have recommended the same book, Superforecasting by P...

IOI 101 / 102 Course Feedback
January 29, 2016

The first IOI 101 and IOI 102 weekend of 2016 held in Tampa, Florida went wonderfully! Here are a fe...

Attention to Process Pays Off
January 29, 2016

How can you tell if a great investor is really great or just lucky? While determining investor skill...

Three Options for Volatile Markets: Finding Profits in Fear
January 29, 2016

[This article originally appeared in Forbes] What an interesting start to the investing year in 2016...

How the Economic Machine Works
January 29, 2016

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has a wonderful way of explaining credit's role in an ...

Apple’s Growth Problem
January 28, 2016

At the end of 2014, while serving as YCharts Director of Research, I wrote what turned out to be my ...

Morgan’s Strategist Speaks the Truth
January 22, 2016

I give sell-side analysts a hard time, but when one of them says something meaningful, I'd like to t...

IOI Quick Take on GE’s 4Q15 Earnings
January 22, 2016

Listening to a GE earnings call sometimes feels as difficult as keeping up with characters in Tolst...

Finding Value in IBM’s 4Q15 Earnings Announcement
January 22, 2016

Versions of this article appeared on SeekingAlpha and Harvest IBM reported FY 2015 revenues in line ...

Wall Street: The Place Where Rigorous Statistical Methods Go to Die
January 22, 2016

You would hope that with all the wealth at stake in the capital markets, analysts, strategists and ...

The Time for Value
January 15, 2016

I do not know much about this asset manager named “Euclidian Technologies” other than th...

Culture Eats Strategy
January 15, 2016

With this week’s selloff nearing the rear view mirror in the midst of much sound and fury, I wante...

Profits are Booming at IBM — Update on Big Blue
January 15, 2016

[This article originally appeared on Forbes.com. A slightly longer version appeared on Seeking Alpha...

An Uncertain New Year
January 15, 2016

U.S. markets have seen a rough start to the new year and some investors are getting spooked. The ...

Bubblenomics
January 8, 2016

John Hussman over at Hussman Funds writes a weekly letter published on Mondays that is always ca...

Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste
January 8, 2016

Turn on the TV or flip open the business section of a newspaper and you'd think the world was coming...

What do Stock Prices Reflect?
January 8, 2016

One of the most obvious yet, in my mind, overlooked correlations in the world is the relationship of...

New Tear Sheet on Whole Foods Market
December 31, 2015

We did a bit more work analyzing Whole Foods Market and published our last Tear Sheet of 2015 (!) o...

A Christmas Present from Wal-Mart
December 24, 2015

We just published a new IOI Tear Sheet highlighting yet another bond replacement investment structur...

Detailed Update on Wal-Mart Recommendation
December 24, 2015

Key Take-Aways The bond replacement investment structure we highlighted in an October 14, 2015 IOI T...

A Wal-Mart Bond Yielding 21% per Year?
December 22, 2015

Our October 14 Tear Sheet highlighted an opportunity for a bond-replacement option investment in Wal...

Detailed Analysis of Whole Foods Market
December 10, 2015

Key Takeaways Revenue growth is slowing at Whole Foods due to a slow-down in same-store sales. This ...

What Growth? A Step-by-Step Valuation of Whole Foods Market (WFM)
December 10, 2015

For years, Whole Foods Market was known as a Growth Stock. Now that it’s trading for around half o...

GE Appliances Division Announcement
December 9, 2015

On December 7, General Electric GE announced that European appliance maker Electrolux ELUXY had back...

Death of a Tiger Cub
December 9, 2015

After Julian Robertson closed his famous Tiger Fund in 2000, he began providing seed money to a hand...

A Step by Step Valuation of Big Blue (IBM)
November 25, 2015

What’s the matter with IBM IBM? Revenues have been falling for umpteen quarters, the stock price h...

Soutwest IDEAS Conference – Dallas
November 25, 2015

November 18-19, it was my pleasure to attend the Southwest IDEAS Conference in Dallas, Texas, sponso...

"What will I gain from the IOI 101 Course?"
November 3, 2015

For those of you thinking about attending our IOI 101 course in Dallas, Texas on Saturday, November ...

Is Wal-Mart a Risky Stock? A Step-by-Step Review
October 28, 2015

For Wal-Mart shareholders, 2015 has been, in the words of Queen Elizabeth, an Annus Horribilus. Trad...

Wal-Mart Valuation Driver Graphs
October 27, 2015

After publishing an IOI Tear Sheet on Wal-Mart on October 14, I followed up my coverage of the comp...

Update: Covered Call on IBM
October 18, 2015

I remember hearing my old portfolio manager talking with a fellow analyst about an investment the a...

Erik to Present to the Gateway Group
October 14, 2015

It's my great pleasure to have been invited to speak to The Gateway Group — an association of...

A Step-by-Step Valuation of Oracle (ORCL)
October 14, 2015

A stock’s intrinsic value balances out to be the amount of cash the firm will generate for its own...

Activist Stake in General Electric
October 5, 2015

On October 5, 2015 Trian Partners, an activist investment partnership run by Nelson Peltz, announced...

Checking in on Oracle
October 4, 2015

After Oracle reported its first-quarter earnings, I decided to review the accuracy of my original pr...

Quick Source for Implied Volatility Data
October 3, 2015

Today, I was happy to find a quick source for implied volatility and historical volatility data.* ...

A Good Idea Gets Even Better: Using Options to Invest in the Yahoo!-Alibaba Split
September 29, 2015

Hedge funds are notorious for their speculative investments, but it’s interesting that the very fi...

IOI's Quick Take on Oracle's First Quarter Earnings
September 17, 2015

Oracle (ORCL) reported first quarter earnings for its fiscal year 2016 after the market close on Sep...

Who's Afraid of Shiller's CAPE?
September 16, 2015

The other day, I had a vigorous Twitter debate with John Authers, a journalist who writes for arguab...

Relax: US elections don't drive consumer spending
September 15, 2015

It’s not uncommon for opponents of a recently elected candidate to suggest that the mere specter o...

Don't Sweat the Fed: Rate Changes Have No Effect on Investors
September 15, 2015

Common wisdom holds that Federal Reserve policy makes a big difference to equity investors–th...

What is the Chinese Financial Crisis?
September 5, 2015

I saw this question on the public discussion forum Quora and thought that the other answers were rea...

Five Steps to Reducing Investment Risk
September 1, 2015

Just as the market downdraft was starting a week and a half ago, a Twitter follower sent me a dire w...

Tear Sheet for The Gap (GPS)
August 29, 2015

A reader, Joe M., wrote me asking about American retailer The Gap (GPS). With the stock price beaten...

Taking Profits on Alibaba (BABA)
August 29, 2015

Back in February of this year, I published an article based on research done by a colleague of mine ...

Surviving and Thriving When Markets Drop
August 24, 2015

In the same way that you are more likely to see Golden Arches when you are hungry, the further the D...

Report on Verizon (VZ)
August 21, 2015

The guys at an investing club I attend were talking about Verizon (VZ) last night. I told them that ...

Tear Sheet on Wal-Mart
August 19, 2015

When Wal-Mart dropped after reporting earnings the other day, I got excited. But the more I dug into...

Three Keys to Being a More Successful Value Investor
August 18, 2015

A reader sent me the link to an article claiming that National Oilwell Varco (NOV) was overvalued by...

NYSSA Talk Video Excerpt
July 30, 2015

The folks at NYSSA — the New York Society of Securities Analysts, an organization founded by B...

Disappointing Spread Transaction
July 23, 2015

This morning, I executed a covered call transaction on IBM (you can find the Tear Sheet for this str...

IBM Tear Sheet Published
July 23, 2015

I just published a new IOI Tear Sheet on IBM that you can find in the Reading List on the IOI Tools...

IOI in Times Square
July 15, 2015

It was great to be back in Manhattan for a few days and to see how much Times Square had changed in ...

Three Ways Stock Buybacks Hurt Investors
July 13, 2015

Over the last 20 years, U.S. companies have increasingly stepped up their use of stock repurchase pr...

A Simple Way to Improve GDP Forecasting
July 6, 2015

Policymakers are overlooking a useful forecasting metric, research suggests. That metric: aggregate ...

Photos from NYSSA Talk
June 11, 2015

My talk at the New York Society of Security Analysts was well-attended and well-received! It was gre...

Revenue Dynamics for Express Scripts (ESRX)
June 11, 2015

The following?is an excerpt from IOI's most recently published Institutional Report on Express Scrip...

What Moats Miss
June 9, 2015

Economic ?Moats? ? otherwise known as ?durable competitive advantages? ? are a big buzzword in value...

Facts and Fictions of Value Investing
June 9, 2015

The annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, affectionately dubbed the ?Woodstock of capitalism,? draws ab...

Express Scripts (ESRX) and the PBM Industry
June 1, 2015

The following is an excerpt from IOI's most recently published Institutional Report on Express Scrip...

NYSSA Talk Details
May 31, 2015

I was thrilled to announce last month that I had been asked to give a talk?at the New York Society o...

IBKR Valuation Presentation
May 28, 2015

In addition to the full IOI Institutional Report covering Interactive Brokers mentioned in my previo...

Institutional Report on Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
May 28, 2015

I just posted the IOI Institutional Report covering Interactive Brokers (IBKR) on the institutional ...

Northwestern's Kellogg School Talk
May 26, 2015

I will be giving my presentation entitled “Intelligent Option Investing: The Intersection Betw...

Erik to Present to the NYSSA in June
May 11, 2015

It is a great honor to be invited to speak at the New York Society of Security Analysts?– an o...

GE's Tax Loopholes
April 29, 2015

When looking around for GE's logo for this morning's IOI News mail, I found this unofficial GE logo ...

Apple Report Redux
April 28, 2015

The blogosphere is tittering about Apple's AAPL second quarter earnings report, I decided to take a ...

Back-of-the-Envelope Valuation for GE
April 27, 2015

Since the announcement that GE would seek to divest the majority of GE Capital, I have been consider...

Reader Question about "Delta"
April 22, 2015

A reader of The Framework Investing just wrote Erik with a good question about what the book calls &...

Erik to speak at University of Chicago
April 22, 2015

Erik will be doing a “Lunch-and-Learn” presentation at the University of Chicago Booth S...

Chicago Booth Capital Ideas Tie-Up
April 20, 2015

Those of you who have followed me for awhile know that I read a lot of academic papers about economi...

What Moves Stock Prices?
April 20, 2015

Back in the early 2000s, I read an academic paper co-authored by Harvard economist, former Secretary...

Interactive Brokers Analysis Presentation
April 17, 2015

Participants in the Spring 2015 IOI Option and Valuation Boot Camp will be meeting again via web con...

Sell in May Redux
April 13, 2015

Reading through news stories at lunchtime, I happened across a Bloomberg article referring to some r...

Nice Day to be Long GE
April 10, 2015

This morning, in a story first broken by the New York Times, General Electric (GE) announced that it...

IOI Tear Sheet on Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
April 10, 2015

The market has it about right now with Interactive Brokers. The past?year saw an enormous rise in pr...

Revenue Drivers for Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
April 8, 2015

This article is an excerpt from our recently-published report on Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and inve...

An Insider's View of Corporate Restructuring
March 23, 2015

At the Spring 2015 IOI Boot Camp, Brent Farler, a corporate restructuring investment specialist and ...

Valuation Presentation Recording
March 21, 2015

On March 20, 2015, I held a conference call to go through a presentation about IOI's valuation range...

Portfolio Management of Short Puts – Oracle Example
March 20, 2015

In early November, 2014, I published an IOI Tear Sheet featuring a short put investment in Oracle (O...

GE Disposition of Australia / New Zealand Consumer Finance Assets
March 16, 2015

Over the weekend, General?Electric announced that?it had sold its consumer finance operations in Aus...

What Vol Should I Use?
February 24, 2015

If you were confronted with the following option pricing display, would you know which “Implie...

Interactive Brokers: A Call Option on Market Volatility
February 16, 2015

An IOI Private Coaching client and I are just working through the valuation section of the course, a...

Paired Option Investment in Yahoo! and Alibaba
February 9, 2015

Joe Cornell, CFA, from Spinoff Advisors, sent through an interesting paired investment idea that see...

Supply / Demand Balance for Oil
February 3, 2015

A?friend of mine, Brent,?who has a lot of experience investing in oil companies and projects–s...

BSM Cone for Actavis (ACT)
February 1, 2015

A question came in today from Sheila C., a Registered Investment Advisor who started an IOI Private ...

IOI Tear Sheet on GE
January 28, 2015

I thought GE's 4Q14 earnings would be a good time to revisit the thinking behind this?investment ide...

More Popular than the iPhone 6
January 23, 2015

Very happy to see that The Framework Investing has earned a higher star rating on Amazon (4.7) than ...

Herding
January 23, 2015

I found this cartoon among some of my files and couldn't help posting it…   See what Wiki...

Oil Price Impact on GE – Part II
January 21, 2015

This blog posting is the second in a series. Please also see the previous post, which discussed the ...

The Economics of Lenders
January 21, 2015

Financing companies are not ?normal? companies and their assets are not ?normal? assets. A financing...

Anchoring on the Wrong Thing
January 19, 2015

A very common behavioral bias is called “Anchoring.” In short, anchoring means that huma...

Target Abandons Canada
January 16, 2015

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning?(paywall) that Target TGT had decided to pull out of C...

Implied Volatility is Unimportant
January 16, 2015

Read any options trading article, listen to any pony-tailed pundit, and it will not be long before y...

Oil Price Impact on GE – Part I
January 13, 2015

With Crude Oil futures trading below $50 / barrel (bbl), my attention has turned to the effects of l...

The Framework Investing is Big in Japan!
January 5, 2015

I happened across a listing for The Framework Investing on Amazon.co.jp–the Japanese version o...

Oil's Effect on Ford
December 22, 2014

Crude oil prices have nearly been cut in half over the past few months, and while U.S. consumers are...

Oracle's 2Q15 Earnings Release
December 18, 2014

Oracle (ORCL) released second quarter FY2015 earnings last night after market close, and while those...

Apple's Overseas Havens
December 16, 2014

Researching something about Delaware business registrations, I just stumbled upon a good article reg...

A Picture is Worth 1,000 Words: General Electric's Revenue Growth
December 14, 2014

Source: Company Statements, IOI Analysis In the heatmap above, the FY2013 revenue for each of GE's I...

The Birth of the Volatility Smile
December 12, 2014

Source: The Framework Investing (2014, McGraw-Hill) In Chapter 7 of The Framework Investing, I write...

Apple's Conundrum
December 11, 2014

While the talk over the last few months regarding Apple AAPL has revolved around the iPhone 6 and 6 ...

Time Decay and the Parable of the Iceberg Salesman
December 10, 2014

Source: Wikipedia The inexorable nature of “time decay”–the quality of options tha...

Oracle's Increasingly Ratable Revenues
December 7, 2014

Source: Bessemer Venture Partners Oracle's (ORCL) revenues haven't exactly been on a tear that last ...

Volatility Risk
December 7, 2014

Asset 1 Volatility = 0.6%Asset 2 Volatility = 350% In modern financial theory, volatility is taken t...

Hedging: Downside Valuations are Irrelevant
December 2, 2014

Risk / Return for an OTM Protective Put A reader of The Framework Investing, Mr. Arun Garg, who mana...

Measuring Investment Efficacy
November 30, 2014

Of the three main valuation drivers I discuss in The Framework Investing–revenues, profits, an...

What's Happening?!
October 20, 2014

I've gotten a few texts and emails from readers asking for my take on the present market turmoil. If...

Cheap Chips
October 12, 2014

Those of you who enjoyed reading my analyses pre-The Framework Investing–when I was heading up...

Comments on Ford (F)
October 12, 2014

A few weeks ago, at Ford Motor Corporation's annual investor day shindig, the company announced that...

IOI Leverage Calculations
October 7, 2014

One of the parts of The Framework Investing about which I am most proud and happy is the new method ...

IOI Analysis of GE's Free Cash Flow
September 29, 2014

In this video, I show how to use the online tools at IOITools.com to analyze the free cash...

IOI Analysis of GE's Revenues and Profits
September 28, 2014

In this video, I show how to use the online tools at IOITools.com to analyze the revenues and profit...

The Intelligent Option Investor Receives First Review!
September 19, 2014

The first review of my new book, The Intelligent Option Investor, was published on Investor.com and...

Don’t Trust “Free Cash Flow”
August 19, 2014

Two out of two experts agree: Most analysts grossly overestimate free cash flow. They do so at their...

Better Options for Ackman's Investment in Target
August 17, 2014

Source: Hedgeye.com There are two main reasons why this investment did not work out for Ackman and h...

What is Intelligent Option Investing?
August 12, 2014

Intelligent Option Investing consists of: Rationally assessing the value of a stock. Seeing clearly ...

Institutional Option Investing Case Study: Bill Ackman?s Calls on Target
August 12, 2014

Executive Summary Even though Ackman?s investment in Target was unsuccessful, the option portion of ...

Reader Question: IOI's Option Strategy Playbook
August 4, 2014

On July 14, I published the Framework Investing Option Strategy Playbook. A reader, who has followed...

Institutional Option Case Study: Ackman's Investment in Herbalife
July 27, 2014

My ears perked up listening to Bill Ackman's Herbalife presentation as he talked about his use ...

Options for Value Investors Presentation
July 19, 2014

It was just about a year ago that I presented at Vitaliy Katsenelson‘s ValueX conference in th...

Whew! (Thoughts on IOI's Covered Call on Oracle)
July 13, 2014

On May 2, 2014 (the spot labeled “A” in the diagram above), we sold calls struck at $41 ...

Praise for the Framework Investing
June 10, 2014

My old boss, the founder and CEO of Morningstar, JoeMansueto, was kind enough to take the time to re...

Covered Call Position on Oracle
May 7, 2014

Last Friday, I sold calls struck at $41 and expiring in July of this year on the stock of Oracle ORC...

Ford Earnings and Investment Strategy
April 27, 2014

In Brief… This article reviews the IOI investment position in Ford, contains a short review of...

Ford (F) Valuation Notes and Investment Strategy
April 14, 2014

SummaryWe have made a small stock investment in the shares of Ford F on the basis of the analysis we...

Oracle Position Update
April 1, 2014

Overview The complex, hybrid Oracle investment that I recommended in two different IOI Tear Sheets (...

Oracle, with a nice taste of schadenfreude
December 19, 2013

Oracle Earnings About a week ago, two sell-side analysts took down their target price estimates for ...

Publication Plans for the Framework Investing
November 9, 2013

I am happy to announce that my first popular press book, The Framework Investing: Applying Value Inv...

Should I Close a Short Put Position Early?
October 15, 2013

I got a question from a long-time reader–Wilson M.–today, that I thought was a good one....

New LEAPS Listed – CAT as a Bearish Investment?
October 15, 2013

One aspect of option pricing that I discuss in The Framework Investing is that very long-tenor optio...

salesforce.com Valuation Notes
October 12, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Valuation of salesforce.com (CRM) and is split into the following ...

How Do You Know the Sun Acquisition Helped Oracle's Business?
October 5, 2013

IntroductionI recently posted an article on SeekingAlpha (Oracle's Sun Acquisition is Paying Off in ...

How Do You Know Oracle is a Good Acquirer?
October 5, 2013

IntroductionI recently posted an article on SeekingAlpha (Oracle's Sun Acquisition is Paying Off in ...

Warren Buffett: Framework Investing
September 30, 2013

Warren Buffett: Oracle of Omaha, Patron Saint of Value Investing The Value Investor Conference–...

The Best Options for a Fully-Valued Market
September 27, 2013

Warren Buffett, in a recent television interview, said that he was having a hard time finding stocks...

More Options for a Fully Valued Market
September 24, 2013

Warren Buffett, in a recent television interview, said that he was having a hard time finding stocks...

Options for a Fully Valued Market
September 22, 2013

Warren Buffett, in a recent television interview, said that he was having a hard time finding stocks...

Oracle's Delphic Announcement
September 19, 2013

This post relates to two IOI Tear Sheets we published about Oracle ORCL: Long Diagonal Investment in...

Change of Opinion on Iron Mountain (IRM)
September 18, 2013

We would prefer not to have to change our fair value estimates, but such a thing is unavoidable with...

Progress Toward a Publishing Deal
September 11, 2013

I am happy to announce that my first book The Framework Investing: Applying Value Investing to the W...

Cisco Systems Valuation Notes
August 30, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Valuation of Cisco Systems (CSCO) and is split into the following ...

Mueller Water Valuation Notes
August 16, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Tear Sheet on Mueller Water (MWA) and is split into the following ...

Valuation Notes on ArcelorMittal (MT)
August 10, 2013

  This overview accompanies the IOI Tear Sheet on ArcelorMittal (MT) and is split into the foll...

Notes on Oracle Valuation
June 27, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Tear Sheet on Oracle (ORCL) and is split into the following sect...

Notes on Iron Mountain (IRM) Valuation
June 17, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Tear Sheet on Iron Mountain (IRM) and is split into the following ...

Notes on Amazon (AMZN) Valuation
June 11, 2013

This overview accompanies the IOI Tear Sheet on Amazon(AMZN) and is split into the following section...

Amazon’s Riddle: When is Cash Flow from Operations not a Cash Flow?
June 11, 2013

We have published a new IOI Tear Sheet on Amazon (AMZN). This article provides more color on our val...

Where is Walmart’s Touted Growth?
May 6, 2013

We have published a new IOI Tear Sheet on retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT). For additional color to the T...

Value Investing in Overseas Markets
May 3, 2013

Recently, two things came across my desk regarding using fundamental analysis to value overseas comp...

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Research
New Bond Replacement Tear Sheet on IBM
July 19, 2017

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IBM 2Q17 Earnings: No Change to Our Thesis
July 19, 2017

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Five-Minute Valuation of General Electric (GE)
July 19, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on General Electric (Levered Long)
July 13, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on General Electric (Bond Replacement)
July 12, 2017

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General Electric: The Sky is Not Falling
July 11, 2017

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Investment Management Diary – July 7, 2017
July 7, 2017

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Amazon (AMZN) Model
June 30, 2017

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Investment Management Diary – June 29, 2017
June 30, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on IBM (IBM)
June 27, 2017

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Investment Management Diary – June 22, 2017
June 23, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on Union Pacific (UNP) [June 2017 Update]
June 21, 2017

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FWI ChartBook on Globus Medical (GMED)
June 21, 2017

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Framework Integrated Model for Kroger (KR)
June 20, 2017

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Five-Minute Valuation of AES Corporation (AES)
June 19, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on Kroger (KR)
June 16, 2017

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Union Pacific (UNP) Investment Update
June 16, 2017

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Follow-Up on Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Valuation
June 12, 2017

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Is Your Portfolio Working With or Against the Market’s Rules?
June 9, 2017

Because the alpha (returns in excess of the market) in our Framework Investing portfolio is generate...

Five-Minute Valuation of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
June 6, 2017

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May 2017 Covered Call Candidates
June 1, 2017

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Five-Minute Valuation of Vista Outdoor (VSTO)
May 31, 2017

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FWI ChartBook on Realty Income (O)
May 25, 2017

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Finding the Fair Value of the Market: Step 1
May 24, 2017

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Five-Minute Valuation of Under Armour (UAA)
May 16, 2017

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Five-Minute Valuation of Globus Medical (GMED)
May 11, 2017

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Four-Minute Valuation: Express Scripts (ESRX)
May 9, 2017

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Quick Take: Union Pacific’s (UNP) Earnings
April 27, 2017

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Quick Take: Caterpillar (CAT) 1Q17 Earnings
April 25, 2017

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Quick Take: Express Scripts (ESRX) Announcement
April 25, 2017

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Special Mid-April 2017 Covered Call Candidates
April 21, 2017

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Erratum: Union Pacific Valuation Model
April 13, 2017

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March 2017 Covered Call Candidates
April 11, 2017

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Realty Income Tenant Workbook
April 6, 2017

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Framework Integrated Model for Realty Income (O)
April 6, 2017

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FWI Tear Sheet on Realty Income (O)
April 6, 2017

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Goldman Upgrades Caterpillar (CAT)
April 5, 2017

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Oracle (ORCL) Valuation Update
March 27, 2017

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Jim Litinsky’s India Presentation
March 24, 2017

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Grant’s Conference Recap Presentation
March 17, 2017

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Final Union Pacific Model
March 9, 2017

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IOI ChartBook on Union Pacific (UNP) [2017 Update]
March 9, 2017

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February 2017 Covered Call Corner
March 2, 2017

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Options Primer and Leveraged Investing Case Study: Yum China Spinoff
March 2, 2017

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Digging Into Under Armour
February 26, 2017

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IOI Tear Sheet on Union Pacific (UNP)
February 24, 2017

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Updated Garmin (GRMN) Model
February 23, 2017

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Garmin (GRMN) Quick Take
February 22, 2017

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Final Caterpillar (CAT) Model
February 18, 2017

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Option Spin: Versum Materials (VSM)
February 17, 2017

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Valuation & Strategy Update for Garmin Ltd.
February 6, 2017

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January 2017 Covered Call Corner
February 2, 2017

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Under Armour (UA / UAA) Model & Financials
January 31, 2017

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Under the Hood of Under Armour (UA, UAA)
January 27, 2017

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Valuation Waterfall for Gilead
January 19, 2017

One of the most distinctive features of IOI's approach to valuation is that of the “valuation...

IOI ChartBook on Caterpillar (CAT)
January 17, 2017

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Strike and Tenor Selection for Caterpillar Investment
January 16, 2017

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Academic Evidence of Commodity Super-Cycles
January 13, 2017

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IOI Tear Sheet on Caterpillar (CAT)
January 13, 2017

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December 2016 Covered Call Corner
January 5, 2017

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Trump-Era Investing Presentation
December 17, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)
December 10, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet on Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)
December 6, 2016

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November 2016 Covered Call Corner
December 2, 2016

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Investment Implications of the Trump Presidency
November 29, 2016

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October 2016 Covered Call Candidates
November 1, 2016

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Bond Replacement Investment Summary – October 2016
November 1, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
October 31, 2016

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IOI Integrated Valuation Model for Garmin (GRMN)
October 28, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet on Garmin (GRMN)
October 27, 2016

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New Mini-Course Teaching Format – Gilead Sciences
October 21, 2016

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IOI Valuation Model for Gilead Sciences (GILD)
October 7, 2016

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Guided Tear Sheet Presentation: Gilead Sciences (GILD)
October 7, 2016

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September 2016 Covered Call Candidates
October 3, 2016

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Bond Replacement Investment Update
September 30, 2016

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IOI ChartBook for Gilead Sciences (GILD)
September 27, 2016

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Changes are Coming to Oracle (ORCL)
September 23, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet for Gilead Sciences (GILD)
September 22, 2016

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IOI Valuation Model for Express Scripts (ESRX)
September 16, 2016

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Small Cap Diary: Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC)
September 14, 2016

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Small Cap Diary: Encore Wire (WIRE)
September 9, 2016

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Small Cap Diary: NovoCure (NVCR)
September 8, 2016

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Small Cap Diary: Park City Group (PCYG)
September 2, 2016

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August 2016 Covered Call Corner
September 2, 2016

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Bond Replacement Investment Summary
September 2, 2016

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Signs of Life at P&G
August 26, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Express Scripts
August 23, 2016

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IOI Valuation Model for Whole Foods Markets
August 12, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet for Express Scripts (ESRX)
August 10, 2016

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NEW Monthly Digest Beta
August 4, 2016

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July 2016 Covered Call Corner
July 29, 2016

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Covered Call Summary Workbook (July 2016)
July 28, 2016

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IOI Chartbook on Kroger (KR)
July 26, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet for Kroger (KR)
July 22, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Whole Foods Markets (WFM)
July 14, 2016

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Video: Whole Foods Call Spread Transaction
July 11, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet for Whole Foods Markets (WFM)
July 8, 2016

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Two Paths to Growth for P&G
July 1, 2016

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June Covered Call Corner Screen
July 1, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Procter & Gamble (PG)
June 17, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet for Procter & Gamble (PG)
June 10, 2016

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Video: Finding Key Financial Data
June 7, 2016

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Video: Assessing Market Risk Using Price-to-Sales Ratio
June 6, 2016

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IOI Note on Apple’s Investment Options
June 3, 2016

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Video: Cash Costs of Apple’s Stock Comp Program
June 2, 2016

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Covered Call Corner for May 2016
May 31, 2016

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IOI Chartbook on Union Pacific (UNP)
May 24, 2016

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Apple (AAPL) Tenor and Strike Prices
May 23, 2016

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Vanguard Brokerage Option Approval Levels
May 19, 2016

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IOI ChartBook on Apple (AAPL)
May 17, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet – High Conviction Bond Replacement on Apple (AAPL)
May 11, 2016

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Sorting Through UNP’s Demand Environment
May 9, 2016

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Recording of NOV Web Conference
April 30, 2016

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IOI Tear Sheet – Speculative Bearish Put on UNP
April 28, 2016

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Guided Tear Sheet on NOV – Full Presentation
April 27, 2016

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Valuation Driver Analysis of Union Pacific (UNP)
April 22, 2016

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Fed Policy and Equity Returns Study
April 14, 2016

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Calculating Free Cash Flow to Owners (FCFO)
April 7, 2016

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Detailed Note on GE Valuation
April 6, 2016

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Covered Call Corner for 31 March, 2016
March 31, 2016

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Tear Sheet on IBM (IBM)
March 25, 2016

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Tear Sheet on National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
March 14, 2016

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Covered Call Corner for February 26, 2016
February 26, 2016

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Demand Environment for National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
February 26, 2016

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Strategy Note – Ford (F)
February 15, 2016

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Tear Sheet on Ford (F)
February 10, 2016

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Valuation Note – Ford (F)
February 10, 2016

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Covered Call Corner for January 29, 2016
January 29, 2016

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Tear Sheet on Whole Foods (WFM)
December 30, 2015

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Tear Sheet on Wal-Mart (WMT)
December 23, 2015

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Wal-Mart (WMT) Bond Replacement Update
December 22, 2015

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Valuation Report on Whole Foods Market (WFM)
December 10, 2015

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Institutional Report on ARI Network Services (ARIS)
October 28, 2015

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ChartBook for ARI Network Services (ARIS)
October 28, 2015

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Tear Sheet on Wal-Mart (WMT)
October 14, 2015

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Tear Sheet on Oracle (ORCL)
October 14, 2015

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Tear Sheet on Oracle (ORCL)
October 2, 2015

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Tear Sheet on The Gap (GPS)
August 28, 2015

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Tear Sheet on Wal-Mart (WMT)
August 18, 2015

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Tear Sheet on IBM (IBM)
July 22, 2015

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Institutional Report on Express Scripts (ESRX)
May 25, 2015

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Valuation Presentation on Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
April 12, 2015

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IOI Tear Sheet on Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
April 10, 2015

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Institutional Report on Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
April 6, 2015

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Yahoo-Alibaba Pair Trade
February 6, 2015

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Institutional Report on General Electric (GE)
January 5, 2015

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IOI Tear Sheet on Oracle (ORCL)
November 3, 2014

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Valuation Report on Apple (AAPL)
October 30, 2014

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Institutional Option Case Study
August 17, 2014

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Who’s Afraid of Shiller’s CAPE?
August 1, 2014

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Valuation Report on Target Corp. (TGT)
July 31, 2014

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Valuation Report on International Business Machines (IBM)
June 30, 2014

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Valuation Report on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
May 20, 2014

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Valuation Report on Dow Chemicals (DOW)
May 8, 2014

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Valuation Report on Kohl’s (KSS)
April 15, 2014

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IOI Tear Sheet on Ford Motor Company (F)
April 6, 2014

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Valuation Report on Ford Motor Company (F)
March 31, 2014

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Valuation Report on Intel Corp. (INTC)
March 13, 2014

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Valuation Report on Under Armour (UA)
February 27, 2014

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Valuation Report on Verizon (VZ)
February 14, 2014

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Valuation Report on ExxonMobil (XOM)
January 31, 2014

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Institutional Report on Oracle (ORCL)
December 14, 2013

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Tear Sheet on Oracle (ORCL)
June 26, 2013

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Knowledge Base
Integrated Models for the Dow Jones Industrials
June 26, 2016

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FWI Guide to Financial Statements
June 1, 2016

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FWI BSM Cone Application
June 1, 2016

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FWI Integrated Valuation Model
June 1, 2016

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Tear Sheet User’s Guide
March 1, 2016

An explanation of Framework Investing's 1-page research briefs Tear Sheet User's Guide 2017.07.03 Do...

Guide to FWI Graphics
March 1, 2016

Detailed overview of BSM Cone and Complex Valuation Range diagrams...

FWI Glossary
March 1, 2016

Owners' Cash Profits, Expansionary Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Owners Download PDF Version...

The Essence of Intelligent Option Investing
March 1, 2016

A brief overview of the IOI framework IOI – The Essence of Intelligent Option Investing Downlo...

FWI Option Strategy Playbook
March 1, 2016

1-page overview of FWI-style option strategies as outlined in The Intelligent Option Investor by Eri...

IOI 100-Series Agenda
March 1, 2016

Topics covered in each of our three foundation courses Download PDF Version...

AQR: One Fact, Eight Myths of Covered Calls
November 1, 2014

by Roni Israelov and Lars N. Nielsen Download PDF Version...

Appendix II of The Intelligent Option Investor
August 29, 2014

This appendix offers an explanation of the creation of simple and complex valuation ranges and a con...

Appendix I of The Intelligent Option Investor
August 29, 2014

This is a step-by-step analysis of valuation drivers using the xample of software giant, Oracle (O...

AQR: Buffett’s Alpha
November 21, 2013

by Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller, and Lasse Heje Pedersen Download PDF Version...

Update to “What Moves Stock Prices?”
December 10, 2012

The 1988 academic paper entitled What Moves Stock Prices? offered a surprising finding. Namely, it s...

Daniel Kahneman: Nobel Prize Lecture
December 8, 2002

Wonkish but wonderful! Download PDF Version...

CIA: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
July 1, 1999

by Richards J. Heuer, Jr. Download PDF Version...

What Moves Stock Prices?
March 8, 1988

An academic paper authored by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers that originally sparked Erik's interest i...

Probabilistic Reasoning
April 8, 1983

Classic paper of Behavioral Finance from Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Download PDF Version...

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